#389: Could ChatGPT Become A Decision Support Tool For Medical Practitioners?, & More

The convergence[1] among Next Generation Sequencing (NGS), artificial intelligence (AI), CRISPR, and other gene therapies could enhance global healthcare solutions significantly—increasing the efficiency of clinical trials by reducing development timelines and failure rates.

Could ChatGPT play a role in the process by booking patient visits, summarizing physician notes, training practitioners, and providing diagnoses? Two studies have increased the debate and discussion around this topic.

In a recent study that compared ChatGPT’s performance with that of Stanford University physicians, ChatGPT disagreed with ~60%[2]  of physicians’ judgment calls. Last week, when it went head to head with a highly experienced physician in diagnosing clinical cases during STAT Summit,[3]  ChatGPT diagnosed one case correctly and another incorrectly. Meanwhile, a Mass General Brigham study found that ChatGPT called all phases of clinical care correctly ~72%[4]  of the time and final diagnoses correctly ~77%[5]  of the time.

We are learning that ChatGPT works best with specific, information-rich prompts, suggesting that medical practitioners will have to augment the model with continuous assistance in these early days. In our view, steadily improving AI will become integral to physician practices, increasing their efficiency and efficacy in delivering successful healthcare solutions.

Last Monday, a report claimed falsely[6] that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved BlackRock’s spot ETF. Within the hour, bitcoin surged from $27,000 to $30,000, then dropped back to ~$28,000 when BlackRock denied the rumors. CEO Larry Fink quickly called[7] the rally a “flight to quality” and “an example of pent-up interest in crypto […] around the world.”

When bitcoin appreciated nearly 50% during a regional banking crisis[8] earlier this year, ARK made the case that bitcoin is a “flight to safety”^[9] asset, because it is uniquely auditable, transparent, decentralized, and not subject to counter-party risk. Fink’s recent comments support our view.

As of this writing, bitcoin is trading 8.5% above its price at the time of the false report and has broken above not only its 200-day moving average but also the cost basis of short-term holders for the first time since August 2023, as shown below.

Source: Glassnode. Data as of October 20, 2023. Data are entity-adjusted and subject to change over time. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

In our view, bitcoin is a secure store of value that, in an environment of increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty, should protect holders from counterparty risk while offering a viable alternative to traditional monetary systems.

During Tesla’s earnings call last week, CEO Elon Musk warned investors that, although the Cybertruck would debut commercially on November 30, scaling volume production would be “enormously challenging.”

Tesla has lots of experience with difficult volume production ramps. The Model X was notoriously overengineered,[10] and the ramp of the Model 3 was nothing short of “production hell.” Heralded initially for promising a simple, cost-effective design,[11] the Cybertruck now seems to be facing manufacturing complexity that is surprising investors. With parts unlike those in any other Tesla model, its costs are likely to surprise on the high side of expectations in the short term.

Adding to the downbeat call, Musk expressed concern that the rapid rise in interest during the past 18 months has hurt consumer purchasing power for big ticket items. Indeed, 60+ day auto loan delinquencies have surpassed their 2008/2009 recession highs, driven by sub-prime borrowers.[12]

Notwithstanding its current growing pains, we continue to believe that Tesla is years ahead of the competition in producing cost effective, performant electric vehicles.[13] It also is developing one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers that, combined with its seemingly insurmountable advantage in real world driving data, should enable autonomous driving.[14] In our view, Tesla will continue to lead the world into autonomous electric transportation.

[1] Urman, A. 2021. “Technology Could Boost the NPV of Biopharmaceutical Pipeline Assets Significantly.” ARK Investment Management LLC. ARK Investment Management LCC. 2020. “Big Ideas 2020.”
[2] Ross, C. 2023. “Why The Early Tests of ChatGPT Miss The Mark.” STAT
[3] Lawrence, L. 2023. “Doctors vs. ChatGPT Showed Promise And Blindspots of Generative AI.” STAT
[4] Mass General Brigham. 2023. “ChatGPT Shows ‘Impressive’ Accuracy in Clinical Decision Making.”
[5] Mass General Brigham. 2023. “ChatGPT Shows ‘Impressive’ Accuracy in Clinical Decision Making.”
[6] Knight, O. and Malwa, S. 2023. “Bitcoin Jumps to $30K, Then Dumps, as False Spot ETF Approval Report Circulates.” CoinDesk.
[7] Ledesma, L. 2023. “BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Seeing Client Demand for Crypto ‘Around The World.’” CoinDesk.
[8] Choi, C. 2023. “The Banking Crisis: A Timeline of Key Events.” The Wall Street Journal.
[9] Elmandjra, Y. 2023. “Crypto has been Thriving Amidst A Regional Banking Crisis and Regulatory Uncertainty: A Deep Dive.” ARK Crypto Brainstorm #02. ARK Investment Management LLC.
[10] Zhang, B. 2016. “Musk on the Model X: ‘We over-engineered the car.’” Yahoo! Finance.
[11] Alvarez, S. 2019. “Tesla Cybertruck’s ‘simple’ design goes way deeper than you think.” Teslarati.
[12] S&P Global. 2023. “Special report from S&P Global Mobility: Auto-finance delinquencies rise past Great Recession peak, but…”
[13] Maguire, D. 2023. “We Updated Out Eve Competitive Landscape For 2023.” X.
[14] Lambert, F. 2021. “Tesla unveils its new supercomputer (5th most powerful in the world) to train self-driving AI.”
Electrek. Keeney, A. et al. 2023. “ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2027: $2,000 Per Share.” ARK Investment Management LLC.